Is it possible to support a United Kingdom and Brexit?
It has been a constant puzzle to me that many of the Brexit leaders also claim to be unionists – apparently in complete denial of the risks that Brexit poses to the integrity of the United Kingdom. Is this genuine head-in-the-sand ignorance or do they hate the EU so much they are prepared to sacrifice the UK to be shot of it?
I have been pleased to see that belatedly – and thanks largely to the joint intervention of ex-Prime Ministers Blair and Major - the subject of Northern Ireland has started to feature in the referendum debate.
If NI left the EU with the rest of the UK, its careful constitutional positioning through the Good Friday Agreement would be at risk. Northern Ireland is part of the UK, but also enjoys open borders with the Republic and has its own strong links to Brussels including the jointly administered EU peace fund promoting cross border cooperation. If the UK is to become less European or more British by taking back the powers it has ceded to the EU, it takes NI with it in that shift and the carefully negotiated position will be changed. In his recent appearance in Derry, John Major warned: "If we throw the pieces of the constitutional jigsaw up in to the air, no one can be certain where they might land."
And yet NI’s First Minister and Secretary of State are both supporting Brexit.
The most obvious problematic issue after a Brexit would be the changed nature of the border between NI and the Republic. Key to peace has been the openness of that border where currently businesses and local agriculture operate almost as if it wasn’t there – helped by the cross border nature of the EU peace fund. A third of Northern Ireland exports go to the Republic and agricultural products go both ways. Imagine what the imposition of tariffs and border bureaucracy would mean for the economy of these areas, not to mention the risk of re-emerging tensions.
Leave has said that border checks would not be reinstated and that the Common Travel Area between NI, the Republic and Britain would be left intact. But if tariffs were to apply between the EU and UK, the Irish could be obliged to police them with customs checks. And Bertie Ahern has pointed out that it would be illogical for the UK to Brexit specifically to control immigration by stopping freedom of movement to the UK, but then leave an open land border with Ireland which could act as a back door for illegal migration.
it’s difficult to understand why this is not playing more prominently amongst older voters who lived through the decades of troubles including the bombing campaign on mainland Britain. But then nothing is really figuring beyond immigration and the economy.
And what about Scotland?
All the polls show that Scotland will vote to Remain in the EU with a substantial majority. Although SNP voters – who appear to have more to gain by remaining - are more likely to vote Leave than other Scottish voters. A few, older SNP leaders like Jim Sillars, are leading a small but vocal Scottish Leave campaign which claims that real independence for Scotland can only be outside the UK and EU. But Scottish voters are not listening to him and, having seen both Nicola Sturgeon (SNP First Minister) and Ruth Davidson (leader of the Scottish Conservatives) outperform all other Remain campaigners in UK-wide TV debates, the Scottish voting intentions should be no surprise. But Sturgeon’s positive case for EU membership helps her avoid any comparisons with the scare-mongering which preceded the Scottish independence referendum and so outraged the SNP. The Spokesman for Scotland Stronger in Europe, John Edward, dubbed their campaign project cheer rather than project fear.
If the English vote leave on 23 June, against a Scottish vote to Remain, whether or not the overall result is Remain or Leave, the Union between Scotland and England will be weakened. If the Scot’s Remain vote keeps the UK in the EU, further English nationalism will result. If, on the other hand, the English take Scotland out of the EU, the anger will be profound. Either way, it is likely to be one more staging post on the way to the dissolution of the Union.
Michael Gove says that he is confident that any new referendum in Scotland following Brexit would result in the same outcome as the first. Scotland exports more to England than it does to the rest of Europe after all, and the falling price of oil means Scotland can’t afford independence. And – Leave further argues - Scotland would have no option other than to adopt the Euro if it stayed in the EU without England. Opinion polls in Scotland currently bear out Leave’s assertion to some extent, and Nicola Sturgeon will not want to precipitate any further referendum unless she is sure she can win – she has said 60% of Scots would need to indicate a vote in favor to precipitate a second referendum.
But Sturgeon knows that the exit negotiations will be tough and punitive on the UK – and could be lengthy - and Scotland will play little or no part in them, further alienating them from the process. If, in addition, the pound falls as predicted, jobs leave the UK for other parts of Europe and the economy is in serious trouble, it is very easy to see that opinion in Scotland is likely to shift very quickly. The SNP’s dream would be that the shift happens quickly enough to allow them to detach themselves from a Brexit and remain within the EU without having to leave and re-join. It may be optimistic but it is certainly not impossible.
My conundrum about the overlap between unionists and Leavers was partly resolved by the excellent article by Fintan O’Toole in the Guardian (19 June). He argued that Brexit is really a covert English nationalist movement and will result in an independent England one way or another. I suspect this is right. I’m sure many Leavers may genuinely not fully understand that the United Kingdom is unlikely to survive outside the EU, but others simply don’t care because their long term agenda is for Harry, England and St George.
